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Seasonal forecasts until summer – News The Weather Channel

By Regis CREPET, meteorologist

The updating of seasonal forecasts is valid for the rest of spring and the first half of summer in mainland France and Europe, for the months of May, June and July. The most probable scenario shows a quarter that is a little warmer than average in France, but not excessively, with precipitation fairly close to normal on the scale of France. We can see the marker of a summer that would be stormy. Here is the monthly detail of these long-term forecasts.

The meteorological spring began on March 1. If the month of March was dry and mild, with all the same the return of rainy episodes in the south of France, exactly as forecast in our previous bulletins of seasonal forecasts, the month of April resumed with rains on half north of our country, which was also expected. On the other hand, April seems to be cooler than expected, with strong temperature variations. The problem remains the evolution of the drought: thanks to the return of the rains, our country should avoid a critical situation in the coming months, especially if the summer promises to be stormy, thus limiting excessively long heat and the drying of the soil.

Seasonal forecast for the month of May: quite changeable

This month of May will present a change in the position of the centers of action compared to April, with generally higher atmospheric pressures over France, synonymous with less disturbed weather. The high pressures would be positioned over the wide Atlantic while depressions would rather circulate from Scandinavia to central Europe (negative North Atlantic oscillation configuration conducive to dominant north to northwest flows). This configuration would be favorable to fairly changeable weather over France as well as the development of a certain instability, especially in the east of France and north of the Loire. Going towards the south of our country, and in particular around the Mediterranean, the frequent mistral would maintain a significant rainfall deficit with a drought situation in the south-east. Overall, mixed weather could then characterize this month of May, with stormy showers and beautiful mild days, which is common at this time of year. This anticyclonic edge configuration would also be favorable to days that are sometimes quite hot, but also to clear nights that could be cool, with a significant risk of light late frosts. Our modeling therefore envisages, in total, temperatures close to seasonal norms.

Seasonal forecast for the month of June: hot and stormy

This first month of summer promises to be hot and very stormy, with precipitation certainly quite close to normal, but very disparate depending on the storms. These would mainly circulate from the south-west (in particular on the Pyrenees) and center-west towards the north-east of France. With low pressures located on the Iberian Peninsula, this would often lead to stormy weather conducive to heat waves, because the dominant flow would be oriented east to south-east over France This development, if confirmed, could be favorable to high temperatures, which is not uncommon in June. Only thunderstorm activity, if marked, could avoid this outlook, as thunderstorms limit the duration of heat waves. This precise evolution will require confirmation in our next bulletins, but to date, this month of June appears to be the hottest month of summer in mainland France (+1.5°C above average).

Seasonal forecast for the month of July: hot and rather dry?

This month, synonymous with the start of the summer holidays as well as the harvest, seems to have similarities with June, namely a rather hot month, but without notable excess, with a persistent stormy tendency, but less marked than in June. These thunderstorms would break out mainly from the southwest to the northeast and over the Alps. The global meteorological configuration would be the persistence of high pressures over northern and central Europe, while low pressures would position themselves over the Atlantic, off Portugal. These configurations are conducive to hot air rising over France, leading to a month of July that is warmer than normal, around +1°C. Rainfall, dispersed by storms, could possibly be slightly lower than seasonal averages. All in all, this month of July could be conducive to a temporary heat wave situation in our country.

Europe-wide, the May-June-July quarter promises to be warmer than average, especially in the Maghreb and the east of the continent. France and the Iberian Peninsula would be more nuanced due to an expected stormy evolution and disturbance circulation over the British Isles. As for rainfall, they are forecast to be poor over the entire Mediterranean basin as far as Turkey, including the Maghreb countries, while they are expected to be excessive over the British Isles and central Europe (storms).

In conclusion, there is a fairly strong signal in favor of a rather hot summer in France, over the May-June-July quarter, but without too pronounced anomaly either. On the other hand, a signal remains concerning a rather marked stormy evolution, especially in June. This will be decisive in curbing drought and limiting periods of high heat. The month of July seems more conducive to the risk of a heat wave after a stormy heat in June. In summary, this summer would not be as changeable as last summer, the perception of which had been gloomy in public opinion, but not as hot and as dry as the 2015-2019 series which marked our country with a succession remarkable heat waves.

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